Costs of Non-Enlargement8IntroductionIntroductionIn contrast to past enlargement phases, the upcoming EU expansion is a proactive Union response to mitigate instability in the neighbourhood and address global tensions arising from armed conflicts, climate change, demographic challenges and democratic backsliding. Europe faces a pivotal moment which will redefine the political space of shared values and geostrategic resilience. Ukraine's accession process The EU should perceive enlargement through the lenses of future security architecture, not just in the immediate war-setting of Ukraine. Larger geostrategic competition for resources will become even more pressing in the years to come. The agricultural and natural resources, encompassing rare materials, along with the demographic potential of a country like Ukraine, should be evaluated in conjunction with the smaller yet equally noteworthy capabilities of nations in the Western Balkans and the remaining countries in the Eastern Partnership. Their contribution would expand the EU's resource base, limit energy dependence and ameliorate the demographic implosion. Conversely, the costs of abandoning any of the future or potential member states will backfire. It will ultimately force these nations into a grey zone exploited by EU strategic rivals.The European Union must make sure that the economic exchange with neighbouring countries continues regardless of any surrounding or internal tensions. The bloc's capacity to act is conditional on the type of rules that regulate fair trade and guarantee prosperity and security, but a partially united Europe cannot strive to be whole and free.Furthermore, while engaging in the prospective enlargement during the ongoing (and potentially protracted) war will be challenging, it will also give valuable experience and make the EU better prepared to confront the emerging multipolar world that will dominate our horizon for decades to come. Exporting the EU The EU should be prepared for non-enlargement scenarios where European power would be questioned. To mitigate the costs of failed enlargement promises, the EU should facilitate growing connectivity with the neighbourhood. It should build upon existing partnership schemes and provide structural loans for the growing connectivity of the neighbourhood through
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